Within the gambling world there remains a myth, known as the ‘Gamblers Fallacy’, which implies that previous results in a game can influence the outcome of games to come. Especially when in games of chance, such as roulette, many believe that if something has occurred several times in a row, the upcoming result is almost guaranteed. However, this is far from true and should be discounted from any wager decisions that you make, as believing this fallacy could see you falling into some costly traps.
Though the Gamblers Fallacy may be widely believed it goes against all the laws of probability which state that anything can occur at any time. Whilst some results or sequences are more likely to occur than others there is no set rule. For example, the probability of flipping a coin to heads four times in a row is just 6.25%, compared to a 93.75% of it not occurring. It can still happen however unlikely it may be, and you should never let your belief that it couldn’t possibly occur to sway your wagers.
The Fallacy’s Faulty Thinking
Before a coin is ever thrown the odds of throwing four heads in a row is 1/16, leading many people to believe that if three heads are thrown the odds of throwing a tail on the fourth toss is 15/16. However, the probability of a fourth head being thrown remains at 50/50, with previous tosses having absolutely no relevance or weight on the upcoming result.
Avoiding the Gamblers Fallacy Trap
It is vital if you’re indulging in online casino games, especially ones of chance, that you avoid falling into to the trap of believing something will happen given on previous outcomes. Just because three spins of the roulette wheel have landed on red does not mean that the next spin will land on black. This thinking can be very dangerous to your strategy, making you take unfounded risks in your game. But by remaining calm and remembering that the Gamblers Fallacy is nothing but a myth, you can ensure that your wagers are based on fact and not fiction.